Former Prime Minister Noda is the leading candidate to lead Japan’s main opposition party

Former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is the top choice to lead the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), a Kyodo News survey of party supporters and lawmakers showed ahead of a leadership vote on Sept. 23.

Four candidates are vying for the post, and the winner could lead the left-leaning CDPJ into a general election if the winner of the leadership race of the ruling conservative Liberal Democratic Party dissolves the House of Representatives soon after becoming prime minister.

The telephone poll conducted over two days starting Sunday showed Noda – who led Japan from 2011 to 2012 when the defunct Democratic Party of Japan, the predecessor of the CDPJ, was in power – with a commanding 58.8 percent support from party supporters.

Noda is seeking to shift the center-left party slightly to the right to appeal to moderate conservatives dissatisfied with the LDP, which has eroded public trust in politics due to a high-profile slush fund scandal.

In second place among party supporters, with 20.9%, was former CDPJ leader Yukio Edano. The party founder, who has stressed the importance of “grassroots democracy,” is believed to have the backing of the CDPJ’s liberal wing.

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Harumi Yoshida, a first-term lower house lawmaker and the only woman in the race, came in third with 7.8%. Current leader Kenta Izumi, who struggled to get the recommendation of 20 party lawmakers to run for president, was last with 7.6%.

Despite his huge popularity among CDPJ supporters, interviews with its 136 lawmakers, who hold a significant share of the first-round vote under the party’s electoral system, suggest Noda’s path is not yet assured, although about 40 have expressed their support for him.

Around 30 lawmakers have expressed support for Edano, while Yoshida and Izumi have the backing of around 20 lawmakers each. However, since around 20% of lawmakers have not yet decided who they will support in the vote, it remains unclear who will ultimately be chosen as leader.

The CDPJ leader will be elected with the votes of legislators and candidates for the general elections, which represent half of the 740 available points. The other half is shared between the local assembly and the rank-and-file members, who can vote by mail or online in advance.

If no candidate wins an absolute majority, the top two candidates will move on to a second round to choose the winner on the same day.