The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday slightly lowered its global growth estimates for 2023, given growing global divergences and the narrow margin for policy error.
According to its latest World Economic Outlook report, global growth is expected to slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points for 2024 compared to the IMF forecasts of July.
The growth forecast for 2023-2024 remains well below historical levels, with average annual growth of 3.8 percent in 2000-2019.
“Several headwinds to global growth receded earlier this year,” the IMF said, noting persistent challenges such as a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, a slow recovery in the services sector, and the tightening of monetary policy by governments. world central banks.
According to the IMF, the slowdown is more pronounced in advanced economies than in emerging markets and developing economies, as policy tightening in advanced economies begins to take its toll.
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The expected slowdown for advanced economies is from 2.6% in 2022 to 1.5% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024, according to the report.
The growth forecast for 2023-2024 remains well below historical levels, with average annual growth of 3.8 percent in 2000-2019
Within advanced economies, the United States showed “stronger than expected” momentum, with resilient consumption and investment, while euro zone activity was weaker than expected.
For their part, emerging market economies proved quite resilient. The global lender predicted a modest decline in growth from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 4.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. The IMF now expects China to grow 5 percent this year and 4.2 percent cent in 2024.
“Despite energy and food markets being disrupted by war and unprecedented monetary tightening to combat inflation that has been at peak levels for decades, economic activity has slowed but not stagnated.” , wrote Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist of the IMF, in a blog post.
“The world economy is limping,” he added.
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