Will the big bear come in Bitcoin in 2026? Analyst spoke about the four -year loop and Donald Trump!

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, President Donald Trump’s last Crypto para He believes that his decree can challenge the long -standing four -year market cycle in the crypto currency area.

In a customer note published today, Hougan said that 2025 would be a strong year for the crypto if historical trends continue. “We estimate that BTC price will double this year due to Bitcoin purchases made by companies and companies and governments to ETFs. It can be said that this is a conservative approach ..

Despite his optimism, Hougan also drew attention to the potential overheating in the market. Increased number of companies increases and borrows capital to buy Bitcoin, and credit programs allow investors to use as leverages without selling BTC assets. In addition, the spread of derivative contracts and leveraged stock market investment funds shows that speculation in the sector has increased.

Hougan said that these trends will typically strengthen the classic four -year cycle. However, the administrative order of Trump, which has established a task force to investigate a strategic digital asset reserve, offers an overwhelming ascension that can upset the model.

Hougan said, “The release of ETFs was a big enough to bring hundreds of billions of dollars from new investors to the crypto ecosystem to the crypto ecosystem, and added:“ However, in the decree of Trump, the banks kept the crypto as well as other assets, stablecoins to the global payment ecosystem. I believe that the full widespread of the crypton in the crypto will bring trillions. ”

Historically, Bitcoin follows a well -defined four -year cycle; Following three -year major gains, a sharp decrease between 58 %and 74 %in the fourth year is experiencing. With this logic, the year 2025 will be a strong year, but in 2026 there may be a correction in the market.

Hougan said, “The four -year crypto cycle, the opening of stock exchanges in 2011, Mt. It reflects the traditional economic explosions and collapses that are strengthened by catalysts such as Gox’s collapse and SEC’s ICO pressure in 2018. ” Some analysts argue that Hougan investor psychology and speculation play a larger role while Bitcoin connects the cycle to the Halving event every four years.

According to Hougan, the existing Taurus run was catalyzed by the collapse of companies such as FTX, Three Arrows Capital and Celsius in 2022. In March 2023, Grayscale won an important legal defense against the SEC and officially fired and paved the way for the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. Since then, corporate participation has increased Bitcoin from $ 22,000 to $ 100,000 in a year, and the period in which Hougan calls the “mainstream period in the crypto was entered.

Although Trump’s decree and changing political dynamics mean rise for crypto, Hougan warns that their full influence can take years. This raises a very important question: If the next large rally does not peak until 2026, does this mean that another “crypto winter” is inevitable?

Hougan said, “If Blackrock CEO Larry Fink calls for Bitcoin of 700 thousand dollars, will we really see a 70 %withdrawal?” he questioned it. Although he believes that the four -year cycle is not completely invalid, he predicts that as the market matures, future corrections will be less severe.

*It is not an investment advice.