In times of crisis and a liquid historical phase, the understanding of phenomena becomes more complex, as well as more challenging. Exactly three months ago, in the column “Carambola a trio,” we said that with Lijo’s proposal for the Supreme Court “they will try to please the Comodoro Py corporation, Cristina, the Peronist governors and Macri at the same time.” . Well, the ruling that exonerates cousin Calcaterra of a crime of corruption to turn it into a simple electoral crime goes along those lines anticipated a long time ago, and opens the door to a long list of those exonerated. Guys, next time ask for a receipt! It was so easy…

The famous driver Centeno must be thinking why he took so many risks for a simple electoral infraction. It is seen that his companions during those days of busy collection had forgotten the receipt book in his offices. Now his eloquent notebooks may be interesting material for academic study, but of little judicial interest. Is this ruling perhaps a gratitude from Comodoro Py to Kirchnerism because the favorable vote is coming to the judge who sands? What other favorable votes will there be to reach two-thirds (of those present)?

Will this mean that CFK is freed from its heaviest causes? Will Macri be free of guilt and charge in the Correo Argentino case, which is in the court of… Lijo? Probably not, since they will become situations without resolution for life, a “doctrine” applied to Carlos Menem, who took judicial indefinition to the grave. In this way, the partners are tied for life just in case… lest anyone forget to fulfill their part. An old song by Litto Nebbia said “there is always someone who forgets to tell when the time for affection is over…”.

Although the candidacy of the sanding judge seems to be going from strength to strength, experts in the field have doubts that the “2 in 1” pack will be approved, with García Mansilla included. Would the doctor choose a conservative and honest judge? in exchange for? Better to make a gesture to the female audience with someone like the judge of the Superior Court of Entre Ríos, Susana Medina, founder of the Association of Women Judges, and linked to provincial Peronism that lost the election for governor. Better someone oscillating and with notable public relations skills, so she will always be susceptible to being persuaded.

The base is

Speaking of important notebooks, one that archives them for us is the IMF. Their classic is one of lime, one of sand. First a congratulations and then your specifications. It seems that some did not realize that the Fund is not an international financial organization, but rather a political organization with majority partners that addresses the problems of the poor and misguided. They hit their heads against the wall so many times with Argentina that they see a cow and cry. If the government wants fresh money – which, as we already anticipated in this column, is very unlikely today – it will have to modify its current economic scheme, which would put “hamoncito” in trouble with a view to next year’s election. A crawling peg with more rhythm and resuming the recovery of rates, among other things, would imply that it cannot continue exhibiting an Argentine miracle in inflationary matters. That is why the drop in rates was stopped and Toto is showing off the fifth month of twin surpluses.

Trascartón, the indicators of economic activity – such as consumption in supermarkets and shopping malls – continue not to rebound and the boys of Washington DC think that it will be a long time away from that, a local coincidence that is increasingly mentioned. A key fact: imports of capital goods continue to fall, which means that there is no confidence in the recovery on the part of the industries. We have already mentioned on several occasions that the business world is cautious.

Will Sturzenegger – the “young wonder” – be a breath on Toto’s neck? Is he coming to take revenge for his displacement from the presidency of the Central Bank in 2018? Why is his arrival to the cabinet taking so long? Are you still defining your functions? 3 weeks ago we warned of the potential problem, to which another no less minor problem is added: does the star minister want to leave, knowing that perhaps the time of good news is ending?

A third big topic of this ultra-short week is the role of the Catholic Church, the controversy over politicized masses and the social situation. Operation, carelessness or both? A little of each one. There is a political move agreed upon with Francisco, triggered by the crisis in the Ministry of Human Capital. Along these lines are the first statements by Ojea (president of the Episcopal Conference), Lugones (Social Pastoral) and García Cuerva (archbishop of Buenos Aires), as well as Grabois’s complaint.

The “neglect” is a move by those closest to Kirchnerism (Priests in the Option for the Poor) and a sector of the village priests (Father Tato of La Matanza, etc.) who encouraged shouting at masses. Father Pepe remained silent. Priest Carrara was beaten because he did not know what was going to happen at the mass he officiated. To guide things came García Cuerva’s homily and Ojea’s mass. It is clear that the Pope is not naive: the photo with the Airlines flag + the audience with Kiciloff are univocal political messages. The Church fights a battle in defense of its social doctrine, but prefers to avoid confrontation. “Kirchnerism” and its “clerical branch” know this and push. The government too and, although it costs it, it remains silent. The million dollar question is whether or not Bergoglio is coming to Argentina this year. A yapa: is the Church the opposition to the libertarian government, in the absence of alternatives?

Argentina seems to have an enormous ability to swallow even the most daring revolutions. Everything can be contaminated by the pre-existing status quo. Even some “simple” notebooks.

PS: this column is made thanks to the contribution of information and analysis from many friends, much better qualified than me. To them, infinite thanks for their generosity.

He has been dedicated to political consulting for 37 years. He specializes in Public Opinion, Electoral Campaigns and Government Communication. He has received several awards: among them, the 2010 Aristotle Award for Excellence in the Dream Team of the year, which is made up of the ten best consultants worldwide in political campaigns. He has participated in more than 200 electoral campaigns in Argentina and Latin America.


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