101 Economists Announced FED’s Interest Rate Policy Forecasts: Here Are the Results!

A majority of economists in the latest Reuters poll, conducted on Sept. 10, expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of its remaining policy meetings in 2024.

Of the 101 economists who participated in the survey, 65 predict that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points not only at the September meeting but also in November and December.

Stephen Stanley, Santander Bank’s chief U.S. economist, said the latest U.S. employment report was “weak, but not disastrous,” while noting that both Fed officials John Williams and Christopher Waller offered relatively bullish assessments of the economy. “Neither Williams nor Waller gave clear guidance on whether to cut rates by 25 basis points versus a 50 basis point cut on September 18, but both gave relatively benign assessments of the economy, which I think strongly suggests a 25 basis point cut,” Stanley said.

Only nine of 101 economists surveyed expect a more aggressive 50 basis point cut at the Fed’s next meeting. The growing consensus for rate cuts reflects rising expectations for a weakening economy. 65 economists expect two more 25 basis point cuts after the September meeting, a significant increase from the 55 economists who held that view a month ago.

*This is not investment advice.