US President Donald Trump’s decision to apply customs duties to Mexico, Canada and China Crypto para The market experienced a sharp decline.
However, Bitwise analyst Jeff Park believes that this economic turbulence can accelerate Bitcoin’s growth thanks to the underlying financial dynamics and strategic policy moves.
According to Park, the current customs duty strategy should be seen from the lens of two basic factors: Triffin Dilemma and Trump’s personal economic goals. The Triffin dilemma reveals the difficulties that arise if a national currency also serves as the reserve currency of the world. This has three major effects:
- The over -valuation of the US dollar – global economies remain artificially high, as they keep the dollar as reserves.
- Continuous US trade deficits – the US has to give a constant trade deficit to supply dollars to the world.
- Cheap government borrowing – the United States can borrow at lower costs than it should be.
The Park explains that the US aims to correct the first two items by using customs duties as a negotiation tool, while using the third article. According to Park, the final goal is to suppress it for a multilateral agreement that will reduce the value of the dollar in a similar way to today’s Plaza Agreement. This may include forcing countries to reduce dollar reserves while changing the structure of the US treasury assets.
Beyond global trade, the park emphasizes Trump’s personal economic motives, especially his interest in reducing the return of 10 -year Treasury bonds. As a real estate investor, Trump’s benefiting from low interest rates explains his pressure to reduce interest rates to FED President Jerome Powell. The park predicts that Trump will take all necessary measures to reduce the return of 10 -year bonds.
The park argues that customs duties will trigger the weakening of the dollar and the decrease in US interest rates, leading to an increase in US risk assets. In the meantime, foreign countries affected by customs duties may further weaken their currencies by applying for economic incentive policies. He argues that this scenario will push global investors to search for alternatives and that Bitcoin will benefit the greatest benefit.
Contrary to the economic crises in the past, today’s digital age allows global assets to move immediately. The park foresees a scenario in which both sides of the trade war, US investors looking for a protection and foreign citizens engaged in the depreciation of the currency, turning to Bitcoin as a value tank. Is the result? According to the analyst, a rapid and dramatic increase in Bitcoin’s price.
Summarizing the analysis, the park argues that a long -term customs tax war will create an ideal environment for the continuous rise of Bitcoin. The park argues that Bitcoin’s price will rise faster than most people predicted, rejecting traditional economic models that do not take into account geopolitical maneuvers.
Park ended his words as follows: “In the long run, you have not yet been able to comprehend how great a continuous customs duty war will be for Bitcoin.”
*It is not an investment advice.
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Source: https://www.bitcoinsistemi.com/trumpin-gumruk-vergileri-kripto-piyasasini-ani-dusurdu-analist-bitcoin-icin-anlamini-derinlemesine-degerlendirdi-btc-icin-inanilmaz/