Positive news from the US yesterday CPI After the numbers FEDThe probability of a September rate cut is increasing, with the probability of a September rate cut priced in at 88.1%, according to CME FEDWatch.
The Fed’s first interest rate cut in September Bitcoin and while it is expected that it will support the rise in altcoins, it attracts attention with its frank statements. 10X Research founder Markus Thielen said that the situation is not as simple and rosy as it seems.
Stating that the positive inflation data received yesterday most likely paved the way for the Fed to start lowering interest rates this year, Thielen claimed that markets may have already priced in a possible FED rate cut this year.
“Expectations of rate cuts have dominated crypto and traditional market sentiment since the second half of 2022.
And the prospect of a rate cut has been among the key catalysts behind Bitcoin’s rise from lows of $15,000 in 2022 to record highs above $73,000 this year.
As a result, the expectation of a rate cut may already be priced in, and an actual rate cut may only elicit a lukewarm market response.”
What Does Historical Data Indicate About Bitcoin-FED Interest Rate Relationship?
Experienced analyst says interest rate cuts BTC He argued that it should be done at a time of low inflation and a growing economy in order to have a positive effect on prices.
Pointing out that according to historical data, Bitcoin’s biggest rise was during the periods when the FED completed its interest rate hike cycle, the analyst said that the first stimulus decisions were generally received more moderately.
At this point, Thielen cited 2019 as an example.
“If a cut is made at a time of low inflation and a growing economy, the positive impact on asset prices will be more pronounced.
At this point, if the Fed cuts interest rates in September 2024 solely due to inflation concerns, this could be bullish for Bitcoin in the short term.
“However, if a rate cut comes amidst continuing economic uncertainty, it could send a negative signal and encourage investors to move money out of riskier assets and into safer ones such as government bonds.”
*This is not investment advice.
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Source: https://www.bitcoinsistemi.com/bitcoinde-fed-rallisi-beklenirken-analistten-carpici-iddia-durum-gorundugu-kadar-basit-degil/
