I will walk the streets again

And Julio left (not Iglesias, immortalized in thousands of memes). Milei is on his way to completing 8 months of management. There was no economic or social explosion. He was not swept away by reality, nor did he leave in a helicopter. He only has a couple of laws that cost him a lot, but that is something. He had more controversies than effective management. With more contradictions than expected from a critic of politics. He is an extravagant president, but no one doubts that he has a good part of the handle, although he will depend a lot on Congress in his 4 years to continue moving forward.

As we pointed out last week, he is suffering a decline in his approval rating, his personal image and expectations for the future. How could this not happen to someone who has to face a mega crisis and has no political experience? The question is whether the absence of the worst imagined fires makes him aware that even the most experienced can fail, or whether he believes his own grandiloquence (everything in this government is “the greatest thing in the history of humanity”). In short, whether he eats glass or not.

The Di Tella University produces two indices: the one of confidence in the government – ​​which we discussed in the last column – and the one of confidence in the consumer. While the first one only rose once in 7 months (the rest of the time it fell), the second one rose on five occasions, for example, last month. This indicates that both variables do not go hand in hand as many think, that if confidence in the pocketbook grows, the image of the government in power improves. Pay attention to this detail, because both trends do not move in unison. Things happen that affect the consideration of a management and a leadership that is not necessarily conditioned by a greater optimism of personal consumption.

A Night at the Opera

The libertarian leader, who is inspired by passages from the Bible and is a rock fan, could refresh the phrase from Vox Dei’s Wisdom Books, where he says “good and bad are things that I live today.” He has managed to reduce the gap, but the Central Bank has been in deficit for two months in a row with respect to the purchase and sale of dollars. In June, he had a current account deficit. Through recession and a dry market of pesos, he is taming inflation, although it has been on a plateau for a quarter. The IMF is not letting up on him for now, but the IDB gave him “a little help from my friends” this week. Is it true that Toto has the resources to meet all the dollar maturities until the end of 2025 (that is, when the midterm election is over)? Neither the economists most enthusiastic about the management of the lion, nor the markets believe that.

The unfortunate political situation in Venezuela was one of the best pieces of news that politics gave to the “cuddly kitten” (Bregman dixit). It elevated him to the category of global hero due to the confrontation with Maduro. The leader of Caracas helped Milei in front of Argentine public opinion and smeared La Cámpora and Kirchnerism, who did not want to have anything to do with the Chavista mess, while we await Cristina’s discursive meanderings this Saturday (And yes! Sergio Tomas Copperfield reappeared to remind us that he was always against the Maduro regime). The lion should send a thank you to his Venezuelan counterpart because he helped him install the great ideological coordinates in Argentina (“thank you Nicolás for so much dignity”).

On the other hand, the blunders in the matter of presidential foreign policy –to differentiate it from that of the Foreign Ministry- bring costs. With Brazil we got away with it because Lula is not stupid and we are his younger brothers, but China is going to pay for Milei’s verbal excesses: paying attention to the phytosanitary barriers that suddenly appear in products that characterize Argentina as an exportable country.

The same Christian-Kirchnerism that forced Kicillof to confront the president, knowing that the YPF investment was not going to fall on the powerful Province of Buenos Aires. When the governor began to retrace his steps to get out of the trap, the state oil company got the better of him in the middle of his trip to Bahía Blanca, invalidating the political event he was going to lead. In this conflict, the first president should thank the graduate of the National Buenos Aires for having nationalized YPF, since in this way he has one more political arm to thunder the warning (once again, sorry Ludwig, it is the discreet charm of power). Despite this defeat – relative, since no one today can assure that the investment will finally materialize – in the political sphere of La Plata they believe that the governor saved his skin, but there is much pointing to the lack of political leadership in Peronism, with the boss almost in hiding.

Last week we had noted the “healthy healthy” gestures that Javo –the good cop- had been sending to the Calabrian. Finally they met in Olivos to continue healing wounds, prior to the event. Although there was good rapport, everything is relative in this world. They are two strong gamblers who will not make any definitive move until the last moment. What if the economy suffers a cyclone? What if Patricia goes over the line in the game of “chip-eating”? What if public opinion in the CABA disapproves of the presidential management? Macri, like Mirtha Legrand, is not resentful, he is mindful.

At the event, the former president did not hold back any criticism of the lion, which he surely anticipated in Olivos: there is not enough people, there is not enough equipment, there cannot be Massa’s officials, a quality adjustment is necessary (not a chainsaw) and the problem is the environment. After a long time, he made a self-criticism about the excess of internalism, as if he had not encouraged it (that is why neither Patricia nor Horacio were there). He wanted to recover the mystique of change with the hashtag “NuevoPRO”. In short: an event for politics. We will see if that has a translation to the people.

With what happened last Sunday the 28th in Venezuela, we conclude this column by singing “I will walk the streets again / of what was bloodied Caracas…”