Analysis Company Made a Prediction for Bitcoin After the US Election: “Even if Donald Trump Wins…”

Crypto even Analysis firm QCP Capital has released its latest market analysis, featuring insights into the latest economic data and their impact on cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets.

According to QCP Capital, Thursday’s Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data came in slightly above expectations at 2.7%, compared to the annual forecast of 2.6%. Meanwhile, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data surprised on the downside, adding just 12,000 jobs versus expectations of 110,000. This led to a recovery in the US Dollar Index (DXY), causing it to climb to the 104 level.

Despite weak employment data, the US unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% and market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in November rose to a 96.4% probability.

Stock markets reacted positively, closing Friday in the green on strong earnings for Amazon. US Treasury yields initially fell after the NFP data, but then rose to a four-month high as investors remained cautious ahead of Election Week. Meanwhile, Brent and WTI crude oil prices recorded slight increases due to the news that Iran may launch a retaliatory attack on Israel.

Bitcoin (BTC) It approached $73,600 on Tuesday night in anticipation of Election Week, approaching an all-time high earlier in the week. Although BTC has been a strong performer, Ethereum (ETH) It lagged behind, having difficulty surpassing the $2,700 level.

QCP Capital noted significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, with net inflows for the week exceeding $2.1 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT fund witnessed record net inflows of $872 million in a single day, the highest since its launch in January.

Although Bitcoin fell below $69,000 yesterday, market interest remained strong, with open interest (OI) for BTC futures and options remaining at $40.65 billion and $25.3 billion respectively. Short-term implied volatility for both BTC and ETH remained high, above 72vol, as traders prepared for Election Week and loaded up on downside protection, as evidenced by higher sell curves.

Looking ahead, QCP Capital noted that while former President Donald Trump is favored as a potential winner, his odds on Polymarket have recently dropped from 66% to 57%, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding 43%. The firm predicts that regardless of the outcome of the election, the market could witness a “sell the news” reaction similar to that observed during the Nashville Bitcoin conference.

*This is not investment advice.