JPMorgan Announced: These Will Determine the Prices of Cryptocurrencies in the Coming Months!

JPMorgan analysts highlighted several critical factors that could shape the cryptocurrency market in the coming months, citing technical, geopolitical and structural events that are likely to drive price movements.

JPMorgan Analysts Discussed the Factors That Will Determine the Price of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

In a research report published today, the impact of the seasonal “Uptober” trend, the FED’s interest rate cuts, Bitcoin The approval of ETF options and Ethereum’s upcoming Pectra upgrade were discussed.

One of the main takeaways from the report is the historical trend of strong October performance, commonly known as “Uptober.” Analysts noted that more than 70% of all Octobers resulted in positive returns for bitcoin.

“While previous performance is not a predictor of future performance, we think this popularization of ‘Uptober’ may influence behavior and result in a positive month for bitcoin this October,” the analysts wrote.

Despite the Fed’s recent rate cuts, analysts noted that the broader cryptocurrency market has yet to experience the expected positive impact. Typically, a falling interest rate environment favors risk assets, but the correlation between total crypto market cap and the federal interest rate remains weak at 0.46, according to the report.

“We have not yet seen the expected ‘boom’ in cryptocurrency prices since the Fed’s interest rate cut on September 18,” said analysts, suggesting that the market may be waiting for more stability before making decisive moves.

Analysts also acknowledged a lack of historical data on how cryptocurrencies respond to interest rate cycles, making predictions difficult. “Cryptoassets really only emerged in the early to mid-2010s, and for most of their existence, interest rates were near zero. “It is possible that stable interest rates, rather than low interest rates, will benefit these markets the most.” they said.

Another potential catalyst identified by analysts was the recent approval of options trading on spot bitcoin ETFs. They believe that this development could deepen market liquidity and attract new participants. “Thanks to options, investors now have a more dynamic way to interact with the ETF and increase liquidity in the underlying asset,” they stated. This can create a positive feedback loop, improving market structure and making digital assets more accessible to institutional investors.

In mid-September, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust spot ETF to list and options trade on Nasdaq. However, final approval is still up to the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The report also highlighted Ethereum’s upcoming “Pectra” update as an important development. Combining the Prague and Electra updates, Pectra will implement more than 30 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) aimed at improving network efficiency, validator transactions, and account abstraction.

“While Pectra is expected to be transformational for Ethereum’s functionality, we view this upgrade as more structural than an immediate price catalyst,” analysts said. They predict that the long-term impact of Pectra will increase Ethereum’s operational efficiency and adoption, but think it is unlikely to trigger a short-term increase in ETH price.

JPMorgan analysts concluded that the cryptocurrency market is in a holding mode and awaits a clear macroeconomic or structural catalyst for sustainable growth. “We continue to see the crypto ecosystem becoming increasingly sensitive to macro factors, so we anticipate the next major catalyst for development and enhanced retail participation to drive secular growth for the ecosystem,” they said.

*This is not investment advice.