Bangladesh: between China, India and Pakistan

The recent resignation of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s long-serving prime minister, and her subsequent move to India highlight the close relationship between the two nations. Hasina led Bangladesh, a country of 170 million people, for nearly 15 years until student protests against civil service quotas escalated into a widespread and violent anti-government movement, resulting in at least 280 deaths in clashes with police.

Consequences for India

The current political unrest in Bangladesh has significant implications for India, which has a vested interest in the stability and security of the neighbouring country. Concerns such as the rise of extremist groups, an influx of refugees and potential cross-border tensions require careful management by India. Moreover, other regional powers such as China and Russia are watching India’s response to the situation, having largely remained silent so far. In fiscal year 2023-24, bilateral trade between the two countries reached USD 14.01 billion.

In June, Hasina made two visits to India within a fortnight’s interval, first to attend Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing-in ceremony and then for a two-day state visit, marking the first visit by a head of government to India after Modi’s coalition’s third consecutive election victory. “While India has maintained strong diplomatic ties with Bangladesh, characterised by Hasina’s numerous visits to New Delhi, recent developments call for a reassessment of India’s strategy. A stable and friendly government in Dhaka is essential for India’s regional security and economic interests,” the experts said.

In geographical and strategic terms, Bangladesh plays a crucial role in the region, sharing land borders with Myanmar and India. It has three of the twelve ports on the Bay of Bengal – Chattogram, Mongla and Payra – making it a key link between South Asia and Southeast Asia. Therefore, any regional collaboration involving major trading blocs such as ASEAN and SAARC must include Bangladesh. The country is also an important geopolitical partner for India as it can improve connectivity between Northeast and Central India.

On the other hand, Bangladesh is also a very strong candidate for collaboration with China on the proposed “String of Pearls” strategy and the development of the “Maritime Silk Road.” This potential partnership has not gone unnoticed by China’s Western rivals, including India, which have begun strengthening their ties with Bangladesh. This shift has transformed Bangladesh from a nation of geopolitical insignificance to a significant player in shaping the future of Asia.

In terms of proxy war game

“Jamaat-e-Islami has emerged as the most successful Islamic organisation in establishing a strong social and political base in Bangladesh. With branches in multiple countries, it has garnered international support, and its alliance with the BNP has further consolidated its position within the predominantly Muslim community in Bangladesh,” explains Prof. (Dr.) Nishakant Ojha, cyber and aerospace security advisor and eminent counter-terrorism expert (West Asia and Middle East).

In an exclusive conversation with FinancialExpress.com, Dr Ojha says, “It is important to remember that the Razakars, who were created by the Pakistani army to garner local support and intelligence, were primarily Urdu-speaking migrants who came to East Pakistan from present-day India during the partition. They served as an auxiliary force to help suppress rebellion in the East.”

However, in his view, Jamaat-e-Islami has faced backlash from minority communities due to its negative impact on their lives. The organisation could have withstood this resentment had it not aligned itself with Pakistan during the 1971 liberation war. “Given the current circumstances in Bangladesh, it seems that the past has caught up with Jamaat-e-Islami, and its future looks bleak. With many of its leaders and financial backers gone, the organisation’s foundation has been severely weakened. It would take a significant turn of events for Jamaat-e-Islami to reintegrate itself into the political and social landscape of Bangladesh. Nonetheless, we cannot overlook the possible proxy support from China and Pakistan, which could help establish a stable government aligned with their strategic interests, potentially affecting India both economically and in security terms.”

What led to the violence?

The term “Rajakar” has become synonymous with collaborators and anti-liberation forces, often seen as pro-Pakistan. Bangladesh has not experienced such violence since its liberation war in 1971, leading to the belief that establishing an interim government could be the most effective solution to restore order in the country quickly.

According to Dr Ojha, “Violence in Bangladesh is driven by a mix of internal dissent, external interference and a disgruntled political opposition, leading to continued instability, even though the Supreme Court has already addressed the issue of job quotas in government.

US sanctions RAB

In December 2021, the US imposed sanctions on the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and several of its officers, as this elite paramilitary unit has been accused of enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings for the government.

A year later, US Ambassador Peter Haas met with families of victims of these alleged abuses under Prime Minister Hasina’s administration. In February, Derek Chollet of the US State Department warned Dhaka that democratic backsliding could hamper American cooperation and called on Hasina to ensure free and fair elections. Hasina responded by accusing the US of trying to overthrow her government.

China and the BRI

Meanwhile, China has made significant investments in Bangladesh, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, funding 90% of new energy projects in the country. This has led to US skepticism regarding Hasina’s ties with China.

While the Biden administration has criticized democratic regression in Bangladesh, it has continued to prioritize short-term geopolitical interests in Pakistan.

In 2021, the US designated the RAB and several of its leaders as complicit in serious human rights abuses related to the war on drugs, freezing their assets in the US. “Central to the unrest is Jamaat-e-Islami’s student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS), which Indian intelligence says has received substantial financial support from the ISI, with some funds traced to Chinese companies in Pakistan or directly from Beijing,” it explains.

The role of radical Islamist groups

“Radical Islamist groups such as Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (Huji) have also contributed to the unrest, allegedly inciting violence and anti-Indian sentiment, with Jamaat-e-Islami and ICS using the guise of advocating democracy and human rights to garner international support.

This unrest has led to increased demands for independence and attacks on minorities in Bangladesh, creating a precarious situation that raises concerns about the country’s future stability and its relations with India,” he said.

Note: This is an article republished from the «Financial Express» media outlet through a cooperation agreement between both parties for the dissemination of journalistic content. Original link.

She is a senior journalist working at The Financial Express Publications. In a career spanning nearly three decades, she has covered diplomatic and strategic affairs, as well as the defence and aerospace sectors. She is an expert on Latin America and the Caribbean.